Between a Rock and a Hard Race
As China strengthens its grip on critical minerals, enforcing stringent export controls across the entire supply chain, Trump is scrambling for alternative sources. The Chinese Commerce Ministry recently announced it would "track the exports of critical minerals and strictly prevent illegal exports," highlighting that control of strategic minerals is a matter of national security. China has already curtailed exports of seven rare earth elements vital for electric vehicles and defence systems, requiring exporters to obtain special licences whilst explicitly banning re-export to the US. Mineral exports will therefore likely feature in future trade negotiations.
Trump's administration responded with characteristic directness, pursuing a multi-pronged strategy to secure mineral independence. In Ukraine, a "minerals-for-security" deal was recently finalised, whilst the President’s gaze has turned to two other promising frontiers—the deep ocean and Central Africa. In April, Trump signed an executive order to kickstart a commercial deep-sea mining industry, effectively bypassing the UN-backed International Seabed Authority, which has yet to finalise a mining code despite years of negotiations. The Metals Company has already submitted an application to mine in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a vast expanse of Pacific Ocean between Mexico and Hawaii.
Scientists warn that exploiting the ocean depths, one of Earth's least explored frontiers, risks irreparable damage to marine ecosystems. Research suggests that mining operations could harm diverse marine life through sediment plumes, noise pollution and physical disruption, with impacts potentially lasting decades or longer. The barren tracks scarring the Blake Plateau - still clearly visible after half a century - stand as a stark testament to the potentially devastating and long-lasting ecological impact that industrial-scale deep-sea mining could inflict on fragile ocean ecosystems.
Simultaneously, the father-in-law of Trump's daughter, Tiffany (on behalf of Trump) is brokering complex negotiations between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. Congo produces close to 78% of the world's cobalt, essential for rechargeable batteries, with most currently flowing to China for processing. President Félix Tshisekedi has offered Trump access to Congo's mineral wealth in exchange for pressuring Rwanda to withdraw support for the M23 rebel group that has seized significant territory in eastern Congo.
These initiatives present enormous challenges. Ocean mining faces scientific uncertainty and environmental opposition, whilst African agreements must overcome corruption, contract instability and entrenched regional conflicts. As China's mineral export controls tighten amid persistent geopolitical tensions, the race for critical minerals seems destined to accelerate, carrying profound implications for international relations, environmental sustainability, and the global economy.
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