Democracy at a Crossroads

In 2024, citizens of more than 70 countries, a combination of over 4 billion people (~50% of the world’s population) will be heading to the polls in what is the biggest election year in history. Of the 10 largest countries by population, 8 of them will hold elections. 

From the Americas to Europe, Africa to Asia, and Oceania, a multitude of nations are set to witness pivotal elections that will determine their leadership and policies for the next few years. However, according to the UN, of the approximately 70 countries going to the polls, only 43 of them have elections that are deemed “fully free and fair”.

The issues at stake are diverse and consequential, with nations facing a range of challenges, including economic recovery from the impacts of the global pandemic, climate change, social injustice, geopolitical tensions and, of course, the advent of new disruptive technologies.

Social media platforms, AI, and big data analytics play pivotal roles in shaping public opinion and influencing electoral outcomes. The 2024 elections will serve as a testing ground for the integration of these technologies into the democratic process, raising important questions about privacy, misinformation, and the overall integrity of electoral systems. Deepfakes have already disrupted the run-up to the election in Bangladesh.

Another noteworthy aspect of the world's biggest election year is the increased participation of younger generations. Youth movements advocating for climate action, social justice, and political reform have gained momentum globally over the last few years.

One of the first elections that will be watched closely around the world is that of Taiwan, with Taiwanese voters going to the polls on Friday, amid a deepening standoff with China. Europeans will head to the polls in June where many are holding their breath to see whether far-right populist parties will make significant electoral gains, as they recently have in some EU states like Germany and the Netherlands. 

Then in November we have the US election, where it looks like Trump’s race must run through a courtroom first, due to his support of the Capitol Hill riot and his business dealings. We also have the world’s biggest democracy, India, going to the polls in June.

Here in the UK, Rishi Sunak must call an election by January 2025. It looks likely that the vote will be held in the second half of the year.

As Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa notes: “We will know whether democracy lives or dies by the end of 2024”.

Whilst writing this Daily Update we came across a couple of fascinating facts. Mexico limits its presidents to only one 6-year term. Also, we mentioned the world’s biggest democracy; what about the world's smallest? We think that is the Republic of Nauru, a small island country located in Micronesia in the Central Pacific. As of 2022, Nauru had a population of around 10,800 people.