The Commentator’s Curse: From Cristiano Ronaldo to Continuing Claims
In sport, they call it the commentator’s curse: the moment when confident praise from the commentary box is followed almost instantly by calamity on the field. One of the most iconic examples came in the final of Euro 2016. With the match barely underway, BBC commentator Guy Mowbray remarked, “Cristiano Ronaldo has never been injured while playing for Portugal.” Ronaldo had at that point amassed 133 caps over 13 years, surviving brutal tackles, gruelling tournaments, and countless qualifiers. What could possibly go wrong?
Moments later, he was on the turf, clutching his knee after a collision with France’s Dimitri Payet. He tried to carry on, even strapping his knee and re-entering the pitch in hope, but he was soon forced off in tears, missing the biggest match of his international career. Portugal eventually won in extra time, but for Ronaldo, the final was over in the first half. The curse had struck in brutal fashion.
Economists and market commentators are not immune. Two weeks ago, we noted that US continuing jobless claims had shown an uncanny pattern: up one week, down the next, for 24 straight weeks. The odds of that happening randomly are roughly 1 in 8.4 million. It was too perfect to trust. We wondered whether seasonal quirks or smoothing artifacts might explain it. But then, like Ronaldo’s knee, the pattern snapped. Continuing claims rose for two consecutive weeks, breaking the streak and suggesting a possible shift in the underlying labour market.
Unlike initial claims, which measure new applications, continuing claims track those still receiving benefits. A persistent rise implies not just job losses, but difficulty finding new employment. The labour market may still be “tight” in a headline sense, but churn is increasing. Until recently, strong payroll data and high job openings gave the Fed cover to maintain a higher-for-longer stance. But continuing claims have been creeping up for months. The latest data pushed the four-week average to its highest since 2021. It is not yet a recession signal, but it may be the early sign of a pivot.
And then there is politics. Donald Trump recently met with Jerome Powell to discuss the economy. While the Fed remains independent, the optics of such a meeting are striking. Could it nudge the Fed toward a more dovish stance, whether consciously or not? Some corners of the market think so. In a world already prone to narrative overreach, this adds a conspiratorial twist.
We will not get either the ADP or the more widely anticipated non-farm payrolls data release until next week, but last month's ADP rise of 62,000 was accompanied by "Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment." This is consistent with what continuing claims are showing.
Which brings us back to the curse. In football or finance, mentioning an extraordinary fact can tempt fate. Ronaldo’s decade-long injury-free record ended within minutes of being mentioned. The improbable symmetry in jobless claims fell apart the moment we pointed it out.
So yes, it is only two weeks of rising continuing claims. But the break may be important. But then again, the curse may come back to haunt us – having noted possible job weakness, maybe we will get the opposite. We will find out next week!
If you would like to receive The Daily Update to your inbox, please email markets@epicip.com or click the link below.