The Doomsday Plane & sentiment versus fundamentals
Eagle eyed aeronautical enthusiasts recently spotted the ‘Doomsday’ plane on flight radars, taking its first flight in over 24 years – last seen after 9/11. It was seen flying on an irregular path, from its home air base in Louisiana to just outside of the capital. So, what is the ‘Doomsday’ plane? It is a specialised US Air Force jet, designed to maximise survivability for top US leaders in the event of extreme situations, including (but not limited to) nuclear scenarios. The Boeing E-4B 'Nightwatch', commonly known by its nickname the 'Doomsday plane', is vastly different from the ordinary aeroplane. It is designed to withstand electromagnetic pulses and even nuclear and thermal blasts - hence it’s nickname. The massive 231ft jet can hold up to 111 crew and passengers on board, with advanced satellite communication systems, it is designed to operate as the President’s flying command centre for all military and civil operations, if all other command centres are inoperable.
Each individual plane is believed to have cost $223million to make, and while the White House have not commented on the movement of the jet, the flight sparked concerns amongst commentators that conflict in the Middle East may have the potential to become considerably more hostile. Alongside this, President Trump mobilised dozens more military assets including fighter jets to US air bases in Europe as well as US aircraft carriers towards the Gulf. Trump has already warned Iran authorities that the "full strength and might" of the military would be used if America was attacked.
However, one thing that has surprised us is that in days immediately after the flight of the ‘Doomsday’ plane, Brent Crude oil prices actually fell c. 10% after having rallied over 20% in the months leading up to the flight. This may be a classic example of the ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ type of strategy in play. Furthermore, OPEC+ continue to increase production, and the demand picture remains uncertain. Despite delays in tariff implementation, and the announcement of select US trade deals around the globe, the overall level of tariffs is going up – impacting the global growth outlook. We have also seen other major volatility shocks around the globe as AI hyperscalers, and implementers continue to vie for market position. In the face of all of this, oil prices have traded in a range over the year, albeit with marked volatility, highlighting the disconnect that can sometimes happen between market sentiment and market fundamentals.
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