The Week Ahead
The week ahead promises a wealth of economic data releases that will shed light on the current state of the UK, European, and US economies.
We begin in the UK, where the week kicks off with a health check on the manufacturing sector through the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for August. As we move further into September, the BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY figures for August will offer a glimpse into consumer spending trends.
Mid-week, the focus shifts to the financial arena, with the Official Reserves Changes for August providing an update on the UK's foreign currency reserves. The service sector then takes centre stage, as the S&P Global UK Services PMI and the S&P Global UK Composite PMI, both for August, are released. The automotive industry also comes under scrutiny with the New Car Registrations YoY data for August.
Rounding off the week, we'll gain insights into the construction sector via the S&P Global UK Construction PMI for August. Inflation expectations will also be under the microscope, with the release of the DMP 3M Output Price Expectations and DMP 1 Year CPI Expectations, both for August. The week concludes with a comprehensive look at the labour market through the S&P Global, KPMG, and REC UK Report on Jobs.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the week commences with a flurry of manufacturing PMI data from across the continent, encompassing Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, and the Eurozone as a whole. This will be complemented by insights into retail sales and GDP figures from various countries.
As the week progresses, attention pivots towards consumer spending, unemployment rates, and further GDP releases. Updates on industrial production and trade balances will also be key points of interest.
Towards the end of the week, we can anticipate insights into construction PMIs, factory orders, house price indices, and consumer confidence. The week will draw to a close with a look at retail sales, additional GDP figures, and a gauge of investor sentiment.
Across the pond, the US economic calendar opens with a focus on the manufacturing sector. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing reports, both for August, will offer a health check on this vital sector. Furthermore, the ISM Prices Paid and ISM New Orders data will shed light on inflationary pressures and demand trends within manufacturing.
On Tuesday, the MBA Mortgage Applications data for the week ending August 30th will provide a window into the housing market.
Mid-week, the spotlight turns to international trade with the release of the Trade Balance figures for July. Meanwhile, the JOLTS Job Openings data for July will be keenly observed for signs of labour market tightness. Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders for July will provide further insights into business investment and demand for long-lasting goods. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, a qualitative assessment of economic conditions across the nation.
As the week progresses, the labour market takes centre stage. The ADP Employment Change report for August will offer an early glimpse of private-sector job growth, setting the scene for the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims data will provide additional clues about the labour market's health. Meanwhile, the S&P Global US Services PMI and the ISM Services Index, both for August, will gauge the performance of the service sector.
The week culminates with the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report for August, unveiling the pace of job creation and the Unemployment Rate. Average Hourly Earnings data will offer insights into wage growth, a crucial factor influencing inflation expectations. The Labour Force Participation Rate will also be under scrutiny, revealing the proportion of the population actively engaged in the labour market.
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