Trump - And So It Begins!

In the final Daily Update of 2023, we said that 2024 is going to be the biggest election year in history, with the line: “Of course, the one that will get the most coverage will be the US election in November, meaning that a certain Republican will doubtless keep our headline writers busy”. It’s less than 2 weeks since we restarted the Daily Update for 2024, and yes, the first Trump Daily is here.  

Donald Trump won big in Iowa on Tuesday as the state’s Republican voters braved the bitter cold to vote overwhelmingly in his favour as their party’s presidential candidate. The Iowa populace kicked off the US primary season, and Trump’s victory comes as polls show the ex-president is odds on to be the GOP nomination, setting the stage for an historic political comeback fight against Biden.  

News organisations declared Trump the winner just 30 minutes after the polls opened, with him eventually taking over 50% of the vote.  

Although this is only the first stage of the US presidential primary process, on this side of the pond in Davos, the prospect of a Trump second term is already sending chills down the spines of world leaders, CEOs, and VIPs as they mull the implications of another Trump presidency for cross-border trade, security, and climate efforts. 

President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has already warned: “If we are to draw lessons from history, looking at the way he ran the first four years of his mandate, it’s clearly a threat. Just look at the trade tariffs, the commitment to NATO, the fight against climate change. In these three areas alone, in the past, American interests have not been aligned with those of Europe”.  

Indeed, if anything, Trump has doubled down on the way he will treat both friend and foe if he becomes the leader of the free world once more.  While campaigning, Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all imported goods. And Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner, recalled last week that during a conversation at Davos in 2020, Trump said that “NATO is dead” and warned that the US would not defend Europe if it were attacked. 

Others worry that Trump would scale back US support for Ukraine. Czech President Petr Pavel has said he believes that Putin is waiting for the 2024 US presidential election results before starting peace talks. There have been reports over the last couple of days that Zelensky has reportedly asked Switzerland to organise a peace conference. 

All in all, the next few months in the run-up to the election are going to be anything but boring and means that this “headline writer” will always be a fallback on a quiet news day.  

As we have said before, Trump is the Daily that keeps on giving.