UK Job Apocalypse
In what has been called a “job apocalypse”, a report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warned that as many as 8 million UK workers are at risk of losing their jobs to artificial intelligence (AI). That’s around 20% of the current UK workforce. In the “worst case scenario,” 7.9 million jobs could be lost, IPPR analysis shows, with no GDP gains. In a best-case scenario, no jobs are lost, and there is a 13% increase in GDP.
Carsten Jung, a senior economist at IPPR, said AI will be a game changer, however, added that the future is, for now at least, in human hands. “History shows that technological transition can be a boon if well managed or can end in disruption if left to unfold without controls. Indeed, some occupations could be hard hit by generative AI, starting with back-office jobs,” he said.
AI already affects 11% of tasks done by UK workers, a figure that could rise to almost 60% if and when companies integrate the technology more deeply, the think tank said. Entry level, back-office and part-time jobs are most at risk. However, unlike previous technological breakthroughs, higher-paying work will increasingly be affected.
The report also emphasises the significant challenges that the UK government faces as it increasingly relies on artificial intelligence as a solution to the UK's productivity issues, highlighting that the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, had already declared an investment of £800m in technology and AI to improve productivity in the public sector.
"Already existing generative AI could either cause substantial disruption in the labour market or significantly boost economic growth. In either case, it's poised to be a transformative force for millions of people." Jung said. Adding: “A jobs apocalypse is not inevitable, government, employers and unions have the opportunity to make crucial design decisions now that ensure we manage this new technology well. If they don’t act soon, it may be too late.”
The IPPR said the UK government should develop an industrial AI strategy to support job transitions and distribution of automation gains across the whole economy, as opposed to being captured by a few companies. Recommendations include fiscal incentives to augment rather than displace jobs, regulatory changes, and supporting green jobs that are less prone to automation.
Of course, the doomsday scenario ignores job creation from jobs no one even knows exist yet, however, it is certainly food for thought.
If you would like to receive The Daily Update to your inbox, please email markets@epicip.com or click the link below.