Week Ahead
The week begins with the German IFO business climate and US factory orders and durable goods reports. The Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Lagarde, and BoE’s Taylor are scheduled to speak. On Tuesday, US wholesale inventories and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index are due, alongside Trump’s State of the Union Address. Additional Fed speakers include Goolsbee, Cook, Bostic, Collins, and Waller. Wednesday sees the release of Eurozone CPI and German GDP, while Nvidia and HSBC earnings will be closely watched. Commentary from the Fed’s Barkin and Musalem is also expected. Thursday brings eurozone consumer confidence and US jobless claims, as well as remarks from Fed’s Bowman and BoE’s Lombardelli. Key data on Friday include ECB CPI expectations, German CPI and unemployment figures, and US PPI.
Markets were pulled in opposite directions last week. Escalating US-Iran tensions and a hawkish Fed tone weighed on sentiment, while a wave of "AI anxiety" triggered a sharp rotation out of tech. Risk sentiment recovered on Friday after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, but uncertainty over the final trade landscape and higher-for-longer interest rates continues to cap gains.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4bps to 4.09%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.07% over the week. The US dollar, as measured by the DXY Index, rose 0.91% as markets dialled back expectations for rate cuts following higher-than-expected PCE prints. Brent crude climbed to a seven-month high, up 5.92% to close at $71.76pb amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Elsewhere, with Mainland China closed for the Lunar New Year, the offshore renminbi (CNH) saw an aggressive appreciation through the 6.90 level against the dollar, a move reflecting broader de-dollarisation signals. This trend was fundamentally anchored by January’s SWIFT data, which saw the renminbi’s share of global payments climb to a 5th-place ranking of 3.13% following a record 11.4% monthly surge in usage. Separately, while the PBoC has reiterated its "moderately loose" stance to support a 2026 recovery, the market remains laser-focused on the upcoming "Two Sessions" in March. The government is expected to formalise its 15th Five-Year Plan and potentially deploy the aggressive, structural stimulus needed to finally break the economy’s persistent deflationary loop.
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